Group stage live
World Cup 2026 Predictor — Live Odds & Win Probabilities
Spain and France lead the field at 16.8% and 16.1% implied probability.
Group games are underway and odds move with every result. Track who's pulling ahead to win their group and reach the 32-team knockout bracket.
Who will win the 2026 World Cup? (Outright odds)
World Cup Winner · $2182.0M traded
| Team | Win probability | Trade |
|---|---|---|
 Spain | 16.8% | Bet |
 France | 16.1% | Bet |
 Portugal | 10.6% | Bet |
 England | 9.7% | Bet |
 Brazil | 8.4% | Bet |
 Argentina | 7.9% | Bet |
 Germany | 5.2% | Bet |
 Netherlands | 4.9% | Bet |
 Norway | 2.6% | Bet |
 Japan | 2.1% | Bet |
 Belgium | 2.1% | Bet |
 USA | 2% | Bet |
 Colombia | 1.7% | Bet |
 Mexico | 1.5% | Bet |
 Morocco | 1.5% | Bet |
 Switzerland | 1.4% | Bet |
Group winner predictions
Group A
Mexico62.5%
South Korea33.5%
Group B
Switzerland59.5%
Canada26.5%
Group C
Brazil71.5%
Morocco20.5%
Group D
USA61.5%
Türkiye33.5%
Group E
Germany67%
Ecuador20.5%
Group F
Netherlands53.5%
Japan28%
Group G
Belgium69.5%
Egypt16%
Group H
Spain79%
Uruguay19.5%
Group I
France65.5%
Norway24.5%
Group J
Argentina71.5%
Austria19.5%
Group K
Portugal63.5%
Colombia32.5%
Group L
England70.5%
Croatia23.5%
Knockout round predictions
More World Cup markets
Where the 2026 World Cup is played
48 teams across 16 host cities in the United States, Canada and Mexico, with the final at MetLife Stadium on July 19, 2026.
How to turn your bracket into real positions
A bracket is just a set of predictions — and a paper one is dead the moment your first pick busts. On Polymarket you can put money behind the calls you're confident in, and re-trade every round. Here's the quick version:
- Read the board, find the gap. Compare the live win probabilities above with your own read. The value is wherever the market disagrees with you.
- Pick your spots. Outright winner for a tournament-long call, group winners for the early rounds, or "nation to reach the quarterfinals" for safer ladders.
- Open the market on Polymarket using any link on this page and buy "Yes" on a team you rate, or "No" on one you think is overhyped.
- Manage it live. Prices move with every result, so you can take profit or cut a position mid-tournament — you're not locked in like a fixed-odds bet slip.
New to it? Read how to use Polymarket and whether it's legal where you are first.
World Cup 2026 betting FAQ
Who is the favorite to win the 2026 World Cup?
Right now Spain is the favorite at an implied 16.8% on Polymarket, just ahead of France at 16.1%. The full outright leaderboard above updates continuously as money moves.
When does the 2026 World Cup start?
The FIFA World Cup 2026 kicks off on June 11, 2026 and is hosted across the United States, Canada and Mexico. It is the first 48-team World Cup: 12 groups of 4, then a 32-team knockout bracket, with the final on July 19, 2026.
What is a World Cup bracket?
It's the knockout-stage tournament tree — the diagram of who plays who in the elimination rounds, narrowing to the final. For 2026, the top 2 from each group plus the 8 best third-placed teams form a 32-team bracket (Round of 32 → 16 → quarters → semis → final). You 'fill out a bracket' by predicting the winner of each knockout match.
Where can I bet on or trade the World Cup?
These prices come from Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. Each outcome's price (0–100%) is the implied probability set by real money, not a bookmaker's margin-padded line. You can trade any of these markets where Polymarket is available in your location.
How do I turn my bracket into real positions?
Pick the teams you're most confident in above, open that market on Polymarket, and buy 'Yes' on your pick (or 'No' on a team you think is overrated). Unlike a paper bracket that's dead after one upset, a market lets you re-trade every round of the tournament.