What Is Polymarket and How Does It Work? (2026)

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market. Instead of betting against a bookmaker, you trade shares in the outcome of real-world events with other people. Here is how it actually works.

The simple version

Every market is a yes/no question, like "Will the Fed cut rates this year?". You buy shares in the outcome you believe will happen. Each share pays out 1 USDC if it is correct and 0 if it is not.

Because of that, the price of a share is the implied probability. A share trading at 42 cents means the market thinks there is a 42% chance of that outcome. The price moves in real time as people trade on new information.

  1. Browse markets by category: politics, crypto, sports, economics, pop culture and more.
  2. Open a market and read the resolution rules so you know exactly how it settles.
  3. Pick yes or no. The price you pay is the implied probability of that outcome.
  4. Enter your stake and confirm. Your position updates live as the market moves.
  5. Sell before the event to lock in profit or loss, or hold until it resolves.

Why people use it

Prediction-market prices are often more accurate than polls or pundits because real money is on the line. Traders also like the near-zero fees and the huge range of markets compared with a traditional sportsbook.

How does Polymarket work?

You trade shares in the outcome of real-world events. Each share pays 1 USDC if correct, 0 if not, so the price is the implied probability. You can sell any time before the event resolves.

Is Polymarket betting?

It is a prediction market regulated federally by the CFTC in the US. You trade peer-to-peer rather than against a house, and the price reflects the crowd's probability.