Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? — Odds & Predictions
Current favorite: No at 100% implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
FAQ
What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...??
As of the latest update, No is the favorite at an implied 100% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.
How are these odds calculated?
These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.
Can I bet on these outcomes?
Yes. Polymarket lets you trade real money on each outcome. Use the links above to view and trade any market, where it is available in your location.