Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30? — Odds & Predictions
Current favorite: Yes at 54.5% implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 54.5% | Bet |
| No | 45.5% | Bet |
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 82.5% | Bet |
| Yes | 17.5% | Bet |
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 89.5% | Bet |
| Yes | 10.5% | Bet |
FAQ
What are the current odds for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30??
As of the latest update, Yes is the favorite at an implied 54.5% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.
How are these odds calculated?
These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.
Can I bet on these outcomes?
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