Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30? — Odds & Predictions
Current favorite: No at 93.3% implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
FAQ
What are the current odds for Which companies will have a #1 AI model by June 30??
As of the latest update, No is the favorite at an implied 93.3% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.
How are these odds calculated?
These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.
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