U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? — Odds & Predictions
Current favorite: No at 84.5% implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web. - Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
FAQ
What are the current odds for U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027??
As of the latest update, No is the favorite at an implied 84.5% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.
How are these odds calculated?
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