"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30? — Odds & Predictions

5 markets · Total volume $593K · Live from Polymarket

Current favorite: No at 98.1% implied probability.

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by September 30, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and September 30, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including September 30, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?No — probability over time
98.1% 23.6 pts

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 940m by September 30?

OutcomeImplied %Trade
No98.1%Bet
Yes1.9%Bet

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 940m and 950m by September 30?

OutcomeImplied %Trade
Yes52%Bet
No48%Bet

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?

OutcomeImplied %Trade
No58%Bet
Yes42%Bet

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 960m and 970m by September 30?

OutcomeImplied %Trade
No99%Bet
Yes1.1%Bet

Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 970m by September 30?

OutcomeImplied %Trade
No99.3%Bet
Yes0.8%Bet

FAQ

What are the current odds for "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30??

As of the latest update, No is the favorite at an implied 98.1% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.

How are these odds calculated?

These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.

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