OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap — Odds & Predictions
Current favorite: No at 99.6% implied probability.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 99.6% | Bet |
| Yes | 0.5% | Bet |
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 99.2% | Bet |
| Yes | 0.9% | Bet |
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 97.5% | Bet |
| Yes | 2.5% | Bet |
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 95.5% | Bet |
| Yes | 4.6% | Bet |
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 87.5% | Bet |
| Yes | 12.5% | Bet |
FAQ
What are the current odds for OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap?
As of the latest update, No is the favorite at an implied 99.6% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.
How are these odds calculated?
These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.
Can I bet on these outcomes?
Yes. Polymarket lets you trade real money on each outcome. Use the links above to view and trade any market, where it is available in your location.