How many SpaceX launches in 2026? — Odds & Predictions

7 markets · Total volume $318K · Live from Polymarket

Current favorite: No at 99.7% implied probability.

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?No — probability over time
99.7%▲ 0.3 pts

Will SpaceX have less than 100 launches in 2026?

OutcomeImplied %Trade
No99.7%Bet
Yes0.4%Bet

Will SpaceX have between 100-119 launches in 2026?

OutcomeImplied %Trade
No99.1%Bet
Yes0.9%Bet

Will SpaceX have between 120-139 launches in 2026?

OutcomeImplied %Trade
No98.4%Bet
Yes1.7%Bet

Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?

OutcomeImplied %Trade
Yes55.8%Bet
No44.2%Bet

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?

OutcomeImplied %Trade
No66.5%Bet
Yes33.5%Bet

Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?

OutcomeImplied %Trade
No90.2%Bet
Yes9.9%Bet

Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?

OutcomeImplied %Trade
No95.5%Bet
Yes4.5%Bet

FAQ

What are the current odds for How many SpaceX launches in 2026??

As of the latest update, No is the favorite at an implied 99.7% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.

How are these odds calculated?

These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.

Can I bet on these outcomes?

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