How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027? — Odds & Predictions
Current favorite: No at 97.3% implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.00% before 2027?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 97.3% | Bet |
| Yes | 2.8% | Bet |
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.25% before 2027?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 91.2% | Bet |
| Yes | 8.9% | Bet |
FAQ
What are the current odds for How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027??
As of the latest update, No is the favorite at an implied 97.3% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.
How are these odds calculated?
These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.
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