Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...? — Odds & Predictions
Current favorite: No at 94.5% implied probability.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 94.5% | Bet |
| Yes | 5.5% | Bet |
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before September 30, 2026
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 100% | Bet |
| Yes | 0% | Bet |
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before October 31, 2026?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 99.7% | Bet |
| Yes | 0.4% | Bet |
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before November 30, 2026
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 98.3% | Bet |
| Yes | 1.8% | Bet |
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 89% | Bet |
| Yes | 11% | Bet |
FAQ
What are the current odds for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...??
As of the latest update, No is the favorite at an implied 94.5% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.
How are these odds calculated?
These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.
Can I bet on these outcomes?
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