Fed Decision in September? — Odds & Predictions
Current favorite: No at 98.8% implied probability.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 98.8% | Bet |
| Yes | 1.2% | Bet |
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 94.8% | Bet |
| Yes | 5.3% | Bet |
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 51.5% | Bet |
| Yes | 48.5% | Bet |
FAQ
What are the current odds for Fed Decision in September??
As of the latest update, No is the favorite at an implied 98.8% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.
How are these odds calculated?
These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.
Can I bet on these outcomes?
Yes. Polymarket lets you trade real money on each outcome. Use the links above to view and trade any market, where it is available in your location.