Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31? — Odds & Predictions
Current favorite: Yes at 100% implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1510 by December 31?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | Bet |
| No | 0% | Bet |
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 96.1% | Bet |
| No | 3.9% | Bet |
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 69.5% | Bet |
| Yes | 30.5% | Bet |
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 78.8% | Bet |
| Yes | 21.2% | Bet |
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1500 by December 31?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | Bet |
| No | 0% | Bet |
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 82.5% | Bet |
| Yes | 17.5% | Bet |
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 95.5% | Bet |
| Yes | 4.5% | Bet |
FAQ
What are the current odds for Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31??
As of the latest update, Yes is the favorite at an implied 100% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.
How are these odds calculated?
These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.
Can I bet on these outcomes?
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