California Governor Election Winner — Odds & Predictions

45 markets · Total volume $39.4M · Live from Polymarket

Current favorite: No at 99.9% implied probability.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?No — probability over time

99.9%▲ 0 pts

Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	99.9%	Bet
Yes	0.2%	Bet

Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	90.7%	Bet
Yes	9.4%	Bet

Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Option G win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option I win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option K win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option M win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option O win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option Q win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option S win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option U win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option W win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option Y win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Other win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	99.9%	Bet
Yes	0.2%	Bet

Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	99.9%	Bet
Yes	0.2%	Bet

Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	88.6%	Bet
No	11.5%	Bet

Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	99.9%	Bet
Yes	0.2%	Bet

Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	99.7%	Bet
Yes	0.4%	Bet

Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	99.9%	Bet
Yes	0.2%	Bet

Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	99.8%	Bet
Yes	0.3%	Bet

Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	99.9%	Bet
Yes	0.2%	Bet

Will Option F win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option H win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option J win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option L win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option N win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option P win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option R win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option T win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option V win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option X win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Option Z win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

FAQ

What are the current odds for California Governor Election Winner?

As of the latest update, No is the favorite at an implied 99.9% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.

How are these odds calculated?

These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.

Can I bet on these outcomes?

Yes. Polymarket lets you trade real money on each outcome. Use the links above to view and trade any market, where it is available in your location.

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