Brazil Presidential Election — Odds & Predictions

32 markets · Total volume $149.8M · Live from Polymarket

Current favorite: No at 100% implied probability.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?No — probability over time

100%▲ 0 pts

Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	54.5%	Bet
Yes	45.5%	Bet

Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	98.3%	Bet
Yes	1.7%	Bet

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	52%	Bet
No	48.1%	Bet

Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	99.9%	Bet
Yes	0.2%	Bet

Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	99.9%	Bet
Yes	0.2%	Bet

Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	100%	Bet
Yes	0.1%	Bet

Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
No	99.7%	Bet
Yes	0.4%	Bet

Will Person O win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Person P win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Person Q win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Person R win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Person S win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Person T win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Person U win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Person V win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Person W win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Person X win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Person Y win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will Person Z win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

Will another person win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Outcome	Implied %	Trade
Yes	0%	Bet
No	0%	Bet

FAQ

What are the current odds for Brazil Presidential Election?

As of the latest update, No is the favorite at an implied 100% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.

How are these odds calculated?

These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.

Can I bet on these outcomes?

Yes. Polymarket lets you trade real money on each outcome. Use the links above to view and trade any market, where it is available in your location.

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