Bank of Japan Decision in July? — Odds & Predictions
Current favorite: No at 100% implied probability.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 100% | Bet |
| Yes | 0.1% | Bet |
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 100% | Bet |
| Yes | 0.1% | Bet |
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 97.7% | Bet |
| No | 2.3% | Bet |
FAQ
What are the current odds for Bank of Japan Decision in July??
As of the latest update, No is the favorite at an implied 100% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.
How are these odds calculated?
These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.
Can I bet on these outcomes?
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