Bank of Brazil decision in August? — Odds & Predictions
Current favorite: No at 99.4% implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 99.4% | Bet |
| Yes | 0.7% | Bet |
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the August meeting?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 99.6% | Bet |
| Yes | 0.5% | Bet |
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 83.8% | Bet |
| Yes | 16.3% | Bet |
FAQ
What are the current odds for Bank of Brazil decision in August??
As of the latest update, No is the favorite at an implied 99.4% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.
How are these odds calculated?
These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.
Can I bet on these outcomes?
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