Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30? — Odds & Predictions
Current favorite: Yes at 100% implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | Bet |
| No | 0% | Bet |
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | Bet |
| No | 0% | Bet |
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
| Outcome | Implied % | Trade |
|---|---|---|
| No | 75% | Bet |
| Yes | 25% | Bet |
FAQ
What are the current odds for Claude score on Humanity’s Last Exam by June 30??
As of the latest update, Yes is the favorite at an implied 100% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.
How are these odds calculated?
These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.
Can I bet on these outcomes?
Yes. Polymarket lets you trade real money on each outcome. Use the links above to view and trade any market, where it is available in your location.