AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? — Odds & Predictions
Current favorite: Yes at 88% implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
FAQ
What are the current odds for AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027??
As of the latest update, Yes is the favorite at an implied 88% probability on Polymarket. Full outcome odds are listed above.
How are these odds calculated?
These are prediction-market prices from Polymarket. Each outcome's price (0 to 100%) is the implied probability the market assigns, set by real money traded, not a bookmaker's margin-adjusted line.
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